With the ProRodeo regular season wrapping up September 30, eleven tie-down ropers sit within $18,010 of the 15th and final NFR seat, the cut projects to finish near $128,000, and the difference between roping inside the Thomas & Mack in December and watching it will come down to how many calves each man has left, how much he wins on them, and whether he ropes his way into Sioux Falls.
Here’s the whole bubble fight, by the numbers.
Table of contents
The calf roping cutline
Top 15 in the world make the National Finals Rodeo. Through the world standings as of Sept. 17—with early Pendleton money starting to post—this is the world standings from the No. 13 spot down.
| Place | Roper | Won | +/− cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kyan Wilhite | $126,752.63 | +$9,663 |
| 14 | Shad Mayfield | $118,226.75 | +$1,137 |
| 15 | Beau Cooper | $117,089.32 | cut |
| 16 | Tom Crouse | $115,116.85 | −$1,972 |
| 17 | Cory Solomon | $112,719.18 | −$4,370 |
| 18 | Dylan Hancock | $111,068.08 | −$6,021 |
| 19 | Tyler Calhoun | $110,167.65 | −$6,922 |
| 20 | Cole Clemons | $109,542.78 | −$7,547 |
| 21 | Macon Murphy | $101,700.74 | −$15,389 |
| 22 | Hunter Herrin | $101,010.24 | −$16,079 |
| 23 | Riley Pruitt | $99,079.51 | −$18,010 |
Nos. 16 through 20 are stacked inside $5,574, and Beau Cooper holds the last seat by just $1,972 over Tom Crouse, who has closed more than $2,000 of that gap in the past week.
The No. 15 cutline has climbed $14,020 in the last three weeks alone, from $103,069 on Aug. 27 to $117,089 on Sept. 15, and two of the richest weekends of the year are still to happen. CalfRoping.com’s working projection has the cut closing near $128,000, in a range of about $126,000 to $132,000, and still climbing. A year ago it finished near $100,903. These are unofficial estimates and will move as rodeos finalize.
What calf roper needs
“Needs” is the money required to reach a $128,000 cut off the current standings. “Shots” is how many rodeos we can see each guy is entered at, Pendleton on, but not counting Sioux Falls. “$/shot” is what he has to average at each one. “Sioux Falls” is where he stands right now in the chase for a seat at the $166,667 Governor’s Cup—the biggest single check left, and one only 12 men get to rope for.
| Place | Roper | Needs | Shots | $ per shot | Sioux Falls* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kyan Wilhite | ~$1,250 | 4 | ~$310 | Needs points |
| 14 | Shad Mayfield | ~$9,800 | 10 | ~$980 | Seeded (Puyallup) |
| 15 | Beau Cooper | ~$10,900 | 4 | ~$2,730 | Needs points |
| 16 | Tom Crouse | ~$12,900 | 10 | ~$1,290 | Needs points |
| 17 | Cory Solomon | ~$15,300 | 9 | ~$1,700 | In line |
| 18 | Dylan Hancock | ~$16,900 | 4 | ~$4,230 | In line |
| 19 | Tyler Calhoun | ~$17,800 | 3 | ~$5,940 | In line |
| 20 | Cole Clemons | ~$18,500 | 4 | ~$4,610 | On the points bubble |
| 21 | Macon Murphy | ~$26,300 | 8 | ~$3,290 | Needs points |
| 22 | Hunter Herrin | ~$27,000 | 7 | ~$3,860 | Needs points |
| 23 | Riley Pruitt | ~$28,900 | 1 | ~$28,900 | Needs points |
*Projected off September 17 Playoff Series points. The Sioux Falls field isn’t set until points lock Sept. 21, after Pendleton and Mandan, both Playoff Series rodeos where these men are still earning points. Only Shad Mayfield’s Puyallup seed is locked; everyone else’s status can still change.
Holding a spot today is worth less than having calves left to rope. Beau Cooper sits 15th but has only four rodeos to defend it, while Crouse sits 16th with ten and the smallest gap of anyone chasing a seat. Second, the Sioux Falls picture doesn’t line up with the standings: the men who look most desperate on world standings money, Hancock and Calhoun, are in line for the Governor’s Cup as points stand now, while the man on the cut is on the outside—though Pendleton and Mandan can still redraw all of it.
The lifeline: Sioux Falls
The Cinch Playoff Series runs on its own set of rails. World standings and Playoff points are two separate ladders, run side by side—points don’t move a calf roper in the world standings, and money won at an ordinary rodeo doesn’t move him in the points. Points come only from Playoff Series rodeos, and with Puyallup in the books, only Pendleton and Mandan are left to earn them before the field locks Sept. 21.
That field, the Governor’s Cup in Sioux Falls (Sept. 25-27), is 12 men: the top four from Puyallup—Riley Webb, Ty Harris, Trevor Hale and Shad Mayfield—plus the top eight in Playoff points as of Sept. 21. Those four Puyallup seats are locked. The eight points seats are not—here’s how they project on today’s points, with Pendleton and Mandan still to rope.
| In on points (as of Sept. 17) | Pts | First out | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kincade Henry | 1,427.50 | Cole Clemons | 891.63 |
| Joel Harris | 1,406.79 | Bryce Derrer | 876.63 |
| Haven Meged | 1,044.00 | Kyan Wilhite | 734.73 |
| Shane Hanchey | 1,042.67 | Brodey Clemons | 728.00 |
| Dylan Hancock | 1,019.13 | ||
| John Douch | 1,017.00 | ||
| Tyler Calhoun | 964.69 | ||
| Cory Solomon | 902.21 |
As points stand now, four of the eleven bubble men would be in the $166,667 field: Shad Mayfield (seeded off Puyallup) and Dylan Hancock, Tyler Calhoun and Cory Solomon on points. Cory Solomon holds the last points seat by 10.58 points over Cole Clemons—the closest margin on either ladder—and that gap is exactly what Pendleton and Mandan will settle.
Everybody else on the bubble—Beau Cooper, Tom Crouse, Macon Murphy, Hunter Herrin and Riley Pruitt—is on the outside of the projected field, and because Mandan falls in the middle tier of Playoff Series points, these men cannot mathematically earn enough points to get inside the Sioux Falls cut. Cooper, Crouse, Murphy and Herrin are all outside the top 12 in the average at Pendleton and will not be back for the short round on Sunday.
Playoff Series Points Scale
| Place | $650,000+ 1,000 base | $325K–$649,999 750 base | $324,999 & below 500 base | Share of base |
| 1 | 150.00 | 112.50 | 75.00 | 15.0% |
| 2 | 130.00 | 97.50 | 65.00 | 13.0% |
| 3 | 113.00 | 84.75 | 56.50 | 11.3% |
| 4 | 98.00 | 73.50 | 49.00 | 9.8% |
| 5 | 83.00 | 62.25 | 41.50 | 8.3% |
| 6 | 68.00 | 51.00 | 34.00 | 6.8% |
| 7 | 53.00 | 39.75 | 26.50 | 5.3% |
| 8 | 45.00 | 33.75 | 22.50 | 4.5% |
| 9 | 40.00 | 30.00 | 20.00 | 4.0% |
| 10 | 35.00 | 26.25 | 17.50 | 3.5% |
| 11 | 32.00 | 24.00 | 16.00 | 3.2% |
| 12 | 29.00 | 21.75 | 14.50 | 2.9% |
| 13 | 26.00 | 19.50 | 13.00 | 2.6% |
| 14 | 23.00 | 17.25 | 11.50 | 2.3% |
| 15 | 20.00 | 15.00 | 10.00 | 2.0% |
| 16 | 17.00 | 12.75 | 8.50 | 1.7% |
| 17 | 14.00 | 10.50 | 7.00 | 1.4% |
| 18 | 11.00 | 8.25 | 5.50 | 1.1% |
| 19 | 8.00 | 6.00 | 4.00 | 0.8% |
| 20 | 5.00 | 3.75 | 2.50 | 0.5% |
Why it matters: the Governor’s Cup pays two performances at $12,533.40 to win, a semifinal worth $4,500 a man, and an $86,000 final that pays $34,000 to the winner. A roper who wins a performance and wins the finals banks up to $46,533.40 in one weekend—enough to erase almost any gap on this list. That kind of money is in reach for whoever ends up in the room; it isn’t for whoever gets left out.
Roper by roper analysis
Kyan Wilhite (13th). Safest man on the bubble. About $1,250 from a $128,000 cut and Wilhite is entered in Mandan, San Bernardino and Amarillo. He’s outside the Sioux Falls field as points stand and cannot earn enough points at Mandan to get in.
Shad Mayfield (14th). The strongest guy below Wilhite. He’s 4th in the Pendleton average at 21.6 on two head and into Sunday’s short round; IF he wins the Pendleton average, it will pay ABOUT $9,168, which alone covers his roughly $9,800 need. Mayfield is also entered at ten rodeos and the only locked Governor’s Cup seat on the bubble.
Beau Cooper (15th). Holds the last seat, but the cushion is down to $1,972 and shrinking. He came up short in Pendleton and is entered at just four rodeos (Mandan, Albuquerque, San Bernardino), and can’t earn enough points to get into Sioux Falls.
Tom Crouse (16th). The volume play, and now the closest chaser. A Pendleton check pulled him to within $1,972 of the cut, and he’s entered at ten rodeos—nobody on the bubble has more chances, and no one needs less per stop (~$1,290). He won’t make it back in Pendleton because of a 17.0 second run, and he’s outside the Sioux Falls field.
Cory Solomon (17th). Two ways in. He’s entered in nine rodeos and, for now, has a Governor’s Cup seat that he holds by 10.58 points. He needs about $15,300.
Dylan Hancock (18th). Better off than his world standings math looks. Only four rodeos and about $16,900 to make up but he’s 5th in Playoff points and, as it stands, in Sioux Falls, where a strong Governor’s Cup could erase most of the gap by itself.
Tyler Calhoun (19th). The wildest card. His rodeo schedule is the thinnest on the board—entered at three rodeos, needs to win ~$5,940 a stop—but he’s 7th in Playoff points and currently in the Governor’s Cup, and that seat is essentially his whole case. If Calhoun makes the NFR, Sioux Falls is likely how.
Cole Clemons (20th). The man on both bubbles. First out of the Sioux Falls field by 10.58 points, and about $18,500 back in the world standings. He’s out of the average in Pendleton, so he needs to earn points at Mandan in order to get into the Governor’s Cup.
Macon Murphy (21st). Down about $26,300 and entered up—eight rodeos from California to Texas and Louisiana—but outside the Sioux Falls field.
Hunter Herrin (22nd). Entered at seven rodeos, about $27,000 to make up, and outside the Governor’s Cup as points stand. He’d need a run of checks starting at Mandan and San Bernardino to have a say.
Where the NFR cut gets decided
The race runs through two waves. This weekend, Pendleton wraps Sunday, Mandan (Sept. 18-20) puts up $60,000 added with the entire bubble entered, and Albuquerque, St. George, Abilene and Omaha all have bubble guys entered. Then the Sept. 24-27 pileup: Amarillo, Stephenville, Tyler, Mona, Poway, Bakersfield, New Braunfels and San Bernardino, all the same final weekend—and the Governor’s Cup on top of it.
Three rodeos are where the bubble converges: Mandan (all 11 entered), San Bernardino (nine bubble ropers, Sept. 25-27) and Albuquerque (eight). But Mandan carries the most weight of any single stop, because it’s the last rodeo that moves both ladders—world standings money and the Playoff points that decide who fills out Sioux Falls. Seven of the eleven rope in the same Sunday performance there for that $60,000.
Standings as of Sept. 17 (PRCA world standings). Playoff points as provided Sept. 17. Pendleton, Mandan, cutline, field and odds figures are unofficial and in progress, and are subject to change as rodeos finalize and the Sept. 21 points lock sets the Sioux Falls field.