The fight for the 2025 PRCA tie-down roping world championship comes down to one final run in Round 10 of the National Finals Rodeo.

After Round 9 Riley Webb and Shad Mayfield are the only calf ropers left with a realistic path to the gold buckle, and while the possibilities are narrowing, the average race continues to shape every remaining scenario.

Riley Webb leads the world standings with $439,626, followed by Shad Mayfield at $388,931, Kincade Henry with $320,916 and Joel Harris close behind at $313,495. John Douch sits fifth at $265,107.

Webb and Mayfield remain mathematically alive heading into Round 10, with Webb firmly positioned as the projected world champion after nine rounds. While countless combinations could still unfold, CalfRoping.com worked through the most realistic scenarios for the top contenders, measuring each path against the standings leader, Riley Webb.

Riley Webb Predictions

Riley Webb enters Round 10 controlling both the world standings and the average.

Webb leads the average with a time of 74.6 seconds on nine head, putting him in position to finish with 10 clean runs on 10 calves. If Webb catches his calf in Round 10, he is guaranteed to finish ahead of all nine other calf ropers who have taken no-times in one or more rounds, securing at least $23,065.32 in average money.

Any placement higher than sixth significantly strengthens Webb’s hold on the world title, and a top-five or better average finish would likely make him unreachable regardless of Round 10 go-round results.

In short, if Webb stays clean, the math heavily favors him walking away with the 2025 gold buckle.

Shad Mayfield Predictions

Shad Mayfield sits second in the world standings, $50,695 behind Webb, and faces the narrowest margin for error.

Mayfield is currently eighth in the average at 68.9 seconds on eight head, meaning his ceiling is a nine-head finish. If all six ropers ahead of him in the average remain clean in Round 10, Mayfield’s best possible average payout would be seventh or eighth, worth $15,968.30 or $8,871.28.

For Mayfield to catch Webb, several things must align:

• A strong Round 10 go-round finish, likely a win
• Minimal or no Round 10 earnings from Webb
• Webb finishing no better than sixth in the average

Any improvement by Webb in the average standings—especially a top-five finish—dramatically reduces Mayfield’s chances of closing the gap.

If the World Standings Ended After Round 9

Earnings below include projected average payouts based on current average placements after Round 9.